<<May 6, 2000>>

Mr. John McLeod <mcleod@sdsc.edu>

Dear John:

(1)  Many thanks for your msg (ATTACHMENT I).

(2)  I revised it.  Pls feel free to revise/refine/shorten further.

(3)  Pls send me the edited version.

Dear Electronic Colleagues:

(4)  Many parts of this are duplicates of my previous distributions.  I apologize for this.

Best, Tak
                          ATTACHMENT I

Date: Fri, 21 Apr 2000 22:05:22 -0700
To: Tak Utsumi <utsumi@friends-partners.org>, utsumi@www.friends-partners.org
From: John McLeod <mcleod@sdsc.edu>
Subject: Re: [mission-earth] Global Peace Gaming/Past and future possibilities {01}
Cc: John McLeod <mcleod@sdsc.edu>

Tak, the following is what I have done with the information you sent me, and
what I would like to publish in an early issue of our S3 in SIMULATION.

I am sending it to you for a check on FACTS -- ONLY.
Do not bother with typos, spelling, or formatting;  such will be taken care by
Suzette, or Lorrie, the Editor of SIMULATION.

I hope that you will not mind the major changes I have made, such as deleting
Chris' suggestion for an Earth Day demonstration -- by the time the article is
published Earth Day will be long past, and you will obviously will not have
had time to arrange a demonstration of any kind.
(Maybe next year? The idea has merit!).

The article, based on your message, follows; please check facts, only.



The following paragraphs are excerpted and edited from an recent e-mail
messages by Dr. Takeshi Utsumi addressed to MISSION EARTH listserve members.


"According to John McLeod, I coined the phrase Peace Gaming"; see his S3
article in SIMULATION, November, 1977.

1.   Global Peace Gaming

The global peace gaming of the GLObal Systems Analysis and Simulation
Association in the USA (GLOSAS/USA) is a computerized gaming/simulation to
help decision makers construct a globally distributed decision-support system
for positive sum/win-win alternatives to conflict and war.  The idea involves
interconnecting experts in many countries via global Internet to collaborate
in discovering new solutions for world crises, such as the deteriorating
ecology of our globe, and to explore new alternatives for a world order
capable of addressing the problems and opportunities of an interdependent globe.

The globally distributed peace gaming/simulations will be for policy analysis,
conflict resolution, cooperation, and training in negotiation techniques.
Gaming/simulation is the best tool we have for understanding the world's
problems and the solutions we propose for them.  The distributed mode with
autonomously maintained and updated databases and simulation models will not
only give credibility and integrity to the databases and models but will also
motivate local people.

The Global Peace Gaming will firstly have a computer simulation model of each
country (if possible, with its submodels in various sectors of the country,
e.g., industry, environment, energy, economy, population, etc.) in computers
(desktop or main-frame) located in the country.  They will have their
associated web-oriented databases and be connected through Internet in such a
way that they can be executed together as a single computer simulation.

Each computer will then have pseudo-decision-makers to manipulate their
national policy parameters in cooperation with their counterparts in other
countries with the use of e-mail (or videoconferencing) via Internet.  They
will then execute the entire simulation model with the new policy parameters
and with graphical presentations of simulation results, until someone will
request to stop it due to some reasons of his/her country.  All players then
discuss via e-mail for new set of policy parameters for next execution period,
and so on.

Those pseudo-decision-makers are the game players.  They will follow pre-set
scenario to play games of international policy makings for attaining peace
among countries.

For example, industrial smog and automobile exhaust in European countries
cause acid rain which harms forestry and fishery in Scandinavian countries.
How should each European country prevent such occurring in cooperation with
each other? -- incidentally, such a scenario was once studied by the
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Laxenburg,
Austria some years ago, though their computer simulation model resided in a
single computer.

2.   Origin of Peace Gaming

The General Chairman of the 1970 Summer Computer Simulation Conference (SCSC)
in Denver, Colorado was David Miller of Denelcore in Denver, Colorado, and I
was the Program Chairman.  Thanks to the success of this SCSC in Denver, I was
then appointed to conduct the 1971 SCSC in Boston as General Chairman.  It
gathered more than 600 attendees, the largest ever for SCSC.  We could peek
the future of virtual reality modeling with 3D graphics of an airplane
circulating over an air field to land on its runway.  A session on macrosystem
simulation was moderated by John McLeod, and a team member of  The Limit to
the Growth" project at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (M.I.T.)
presented an overview of their activity prior to its publication a half year
later.  A professor from the U.S. Naval Post Graduate School in Monterey,
California presented his work on war gaming.  His last words were "War gaming
cannot be perfect without having its models tied together with simulation
models of civilian sectors."  As recalling industrial, urban and world
dynamics studied at M.I.T. in 1967, I said to myself "Well, we may be able to
help them as doing, at least, the simulation of the civilian part."  This
culminated in my motivation for creating Globally Collaborative Environmental
Peace Gaming and Global University System which would supply its game players.

When David and John McLeod visited Tokyo to attend a simulation conference,
David and I discussed his new venture to create a massive parallel digital
computer "Heterogeneous Element Processor (HEP)", to have 50 or so central
processing units -- more than the earlier, ILIAC-IV which had four processors.
The HEP was then designed by Max Gilliland, as the first commercial parallel
processing machine.

Previous to the meeting with Dave Miller I had worked for Mobil Oil, where I
had the privilege of using the currently largest hybrid computer exclusively
for a half year.  (This hybrid computer was also designed by Max Gilliland.)
It consisted of two analog computers (each with 500 amplifiers) tied with a
Xerox SIGMA (the first real-time digital processor), with a 32 K word memory.
I had to simulate the retorting of Rocky Mountain shale oil extraction with
highly non-linear simultaneous partial differential equations having three
boundary conditions.

As NASA did not have $1.5 million to pay for this hybrid computer, that
computer was just sitting at the Beckman Laboratory in Richmond, California
for some time.  Engineers from Boeing Company came later to use the computer.
When I asked them what simulation they were performing, their reply was
 Design a plane which can fly to Tokyo in 30 minutes!  Tokyo is so close that
the airplane has to go around the globe a couple of times before its landing."
I thought that was very crazy.  However, lo and behold, I later learned that
the US Air Force base in Okinawa was designated as one of the emergency
landings of space shuttle!!  Incidentally, this hybrid computer was later used
at the M.I.T. to simulate the lunar landing of Astronaut Neil Armstrong.  I
then thought that computer simulationists can be two decades ahead of the
world technological progresses.

John McLeod, David Miller, and I, along with many others, began our computer
experiences with analog computers in 1950s and early 1960s.  The analog
computer was (and is) a parallel processor using voltages and currents rather
than combinations of ones and zeros to represent parameters and variables in
models -- hence we were used to thinking in terms of parallel computing.  At
that time, we looked down (with some justification) on the slow and sequential
processing, and cumbersome machine and compiler programming languages of
digital computers.  In those days they seemed to be good only for accountants'
arithmetic, but certainly not good for engineers' differential equations.
Thus, because of my background, I had encouraged David Miller to proceed with HEP.

3.   Origin of Globally Distributed Computer Simulation System

My other previous experiences were with time-sharing, telecommunications, and
networking in my post-doctoral studies of System Dynamics at M.I.T.

When Dennis Meadows et al., at M.I.T. published "The Limits to the Growth," I
wondered how they could know everything about the world, as if they were the
Almighty God.  Thus I said why not have the model of Japan made by the
Japanese.  And, following the motto of the Greyhound Bus Company, "Leave the
Driving to Us", have each participant construct the model of their own
country.  Thus was born the idea of a distributed computer simulation system
through a data telecommunication network similar to an analog computer configuration.

Then in 1981, I coined the phrase "Global Neural Computer Network" in which
each participant, with his own desktop computer, database and submodel, would
correspond to a neuron, the Internet router to the synapses, and
telecommunication network to the nerves of a global brain.  (Two decades
later, Sun Microsystem got the same idea and now have their motto  Network is
Computer.")  Vice President Al Gore used this term in a speech [Washington,
D.C., 1994] as the result of my sending a member of his staff (one of our
listserve members at that time) a good bit of material.

Al Gore then continued with the following words:

     "The Department of Defense is investing well over $1 billion in the
     development and implementation of networked distributed interactive simulation.
     This technology, which allows dispersed learners to engage in
     collaborative problem solving activities in real time, is now ready for
     transfer to schools and workplaces outside of the defense sector."

          [Speaking to communications industry leaders, January 11, 1994]

4.   Encountering with ARPANET

Thanks to a travel grant from the US National Science Foundation (NSF), I
could attend and present my concept of global peace gaming with globally
distributed computer simulation at the first International Conference on
Computer Communication (ICCC) in Washington, D.C. in October, 1972.  The first
publication of that concept appeared in Nikkei Shimbun (an equivalent of the
Wall Street Journal in Japanese) November 4, 1973, under the Heading
"Japan-U.S. On-line Energy Information via Satellite."

At that time, I was Director of the System Division of the Mitsubishi Research
Institute (MRI).  I received Y80 million (almost US$8 million now) from a
Japanese philanthropic foundation thanks to the kind introduction by the
Japanese Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI).  MRI then said
to me that I had done a very good job -- and kicked me out to have the money
for themselves!

Alas, they then could not perform the job, and had to return the money to the
foundation.  A shame, and what a humiliation to the MRI!!

The Global Peace Gaming with distributed computer simulation system around the
global neural computer network was later considered by the MITI for their
large scale project, but was lost to the much publicized 5th Generation
Computer project which consumed Japanese taxpayers' money in the magnitude of
$300 to 500 million in 10 years.  It is now internationally well known that
this project did not produce any tangible results.  Some American colleagues
said to me that the MITI should have listen to me at that time.  Our proposed
Global Service Trust Fund (GSTF) project, which will be briefly mentioned
later, is the follow-up to this incidence.

At the ICCC conference, I saw a demonstration of ARPANET, the first
packet-switching data telecommunication network.  It was invented by Dr. Paul Baran
at Rand Corporation in the early 1960s.  (He is one of our listserve members
and a strong supporter of our project with his generous financial

I then decided to work on an extension of ARPANET to overseas countries,
particularly to Japan, because such a network would be the most suitable for
our global peace gaming.  I heard that the ARPANET was extended to England.  I
then thought why not to Japan.  My effort of visiting many US governmental
agencies failed.  I learned the reason later.  The connection of the ARPANET
to England was actually to Norway via satellite and from Norway to England via
undersea cable.  The reason of the connection of the ARPANET to Norway was to
detect the seismic wave of underground explosion of nuclear bombs in Soviet
Union.  I saw at a company in Boston which recorded the seismic wave data into
audio/video professional quality Ampex 3/4 inch tapes.  The data was then
disseminated to scientists around the US through the ARPANET.  Later I learned
that Japanese governmental research laboratories accessed ARPANET via a node
in Soul, Korea, namely, Japan is an island so that it cannot detect the
seismic wave from Soviet Union.

Right after the ICCC, I visited Jack Pugh at the M.I.T., the author of DYNAMO
simulation language which was used for Systems Dynamics modeling.  He told me
that Dr. Bolt, Chairman of Bolt, Beranek and Newman (BBN), Inc. in Cambridge,
MA was planning to establish a new company for commercializing the packet-switching t
elecommunication technology.  The BBN was then the major node of
the ARPANET and Dr. Bolt was Jack's neighbor.  This new company, Telenet, was
started with X.25 protocol in the summer of 1976 with Dr. Larry Roberts as its
president.  Dr. Roberts was the first director of the ARPANET.

Later, I introduced LCD panel made by a Japanese company SHARP to BBN.  I was
then surprised to receive a certified, registered mail from BBN which included
a legal document to assign me a Japanese representative to open BBN/Japan,
though I did not request them such a matter before.  An executive of the
Japanese company then visited BBN, and then I received another certified mail
which requested to withdraw the contract.

5.   Extension of Telenet to Japan

As soon as the Telenet was opened in the summer of 1976, I visited their
office offering my assistance to extend their data telecommunication network
to overseas countries, particularly to Japan.  By the nature of
telecommunications business, such global expansion was a natural consequence.
However, they had to decide a major management issue, i.e., either that they
proceed it by themselves, or that they work with international Telex business
companies, e.g., Western Union International, ITT and RCA Globcom, etc.  I
commended them to work with those companies, since KDD (Kokusai Denshin Denwa,
Japanese overseas telecommunications authority) had good relations with them
for many years.

When those three firms submitted their petitions for extending the Telenet's
service to Japan to the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC), they
encountered with oppositions from GEISCO (a GE's time-sharing service firm)
and Control Data Corporation (CDC).  This was because the former previously
encountered with severe trouble when they extended their service to Japan in
1972.  The CDC previously acquired IBM's service bureau in Cleveland, OH out
of its divesture.  The CDC extended the service based on IBM 360 machines to
Japan with a leased line from Cleveland to Japan.  The CDC then wanted to
extend their Cyber time-sharing service from Minneapolis, MN to Japan, as
firstly connecting their CDC machines to the IBM machines in Cleveland so that
only one leased line to Japan would be necessary.  KDD opposed such a
configuration saying that the machine in Cleveland would act as if a switching
node which would process the signal from/to Minneapolis without changing its
content.  This configuration was not allowed by the Japanese
telecommunications regulations, though the machine in Cleveland in the US was
completely out of KDD's jurisdiction under Japanese telecommunications
regulations.  Therefore, KDD requested CDC to install another leased line from
Minneapolis to Japan with huge cost payment to the KDD.  The contentions of
GEISCO and CDC were that Japan should liberalize its telecommunications
policies before the three firms' extension of Telenet was allowed.  I then
submitted a thick petition to the FCC as countering to GEISCO and CDC, with
support letters from many US firms, e.g., Lockheed time-sharing, The New York
Times databank service, etc.  My petition said that Japanese were not
necessary stupid so that once this Telenet was extended to Japan, they would
realize how Japanese telecommunications policies were ridiculous.  I was then
very surprised to receive a letter from the lawyer for CDC in Washington, D.C.
saying that my petition was *patently unfair*, even though my firm was
operating with shoestring fund compared with several billion dollar revenue of
CDC.  The FCC finally allowed the three companies to extend Telenet to Japan,
as saying that the FCC's determination took my contention seriously.

Compared with exclusive time-sharing service available only from the host
computers of GEISCO and CDC, the extended network of Telenet provided Japanese
with services of many other companies.  Subsequently, the extension of Telenet
to Japan was instant success.

6.   First Global Peace Gaming in Normative (Qualitative) Mode

After attending the 1972 SCSC in San Diego, California, I visited Bob Noel of
the Political Science Department of the University of California at Santa
Barbara.  A conference room had a wall-size world map with an American flag
standing by.  It was as if a situation room of a governmental agency.  The
adjacent room was a control room with a short-wave radio which could receive
world news instantaneously.  The room's wall adjacent to the conference room
had a glass window from which they could video tape the activities of the
conference.  Dr. Noel was conducting a political gaming on international
affairs using ARPANET as following gaming approach of Professor Harold
Guetzkow of Northwestern University.  He assigned several different schools to
act as the governments of the United States, Soviet Union, Japan, China, etc.
Students had to study about the assigned countries before the start of the game.

I asked him who was acting for Japan.  He said the University of Southern
California.  So I said to him, "However hard Americans may study about Japan,
they cannot think as Japanese, since they eat stake with a knife and fork
while Japanese eat noodles with chopsticks."  So I proposed that he invite the
University of Tokyo to play the role of the Japanese government.

This was when the original idea of Globally Collaborative Peace Gaming was
born, and my inquiries to Bob Noel were based on the words John McLeod once
mentioned that the first step of simulation was to make simulation exercise as
close to the simuland (i.e., the target to simulate) as possible, since
simulation projects often consume huge resources.

During my conversation with Bob Noel I also proposed him that all
participating game players should have their Systems Dynamics type computer
simulation model test and predict their proposed policies so that they could
make quantitative discussions basing on reliable  facts and figures," as John
McLeod often urged.  John's contention is that huge time and money for the
preparation of simulation/gaming should not be wasted with mere normative
(qualitative) discussions alone.

Jay Forrester of M.I.T. once said that the primary purpose of Systems Dynamics
simulation is NOT for its prediction/forecasting, but for the clearer
understanding of interdependent relationship of social factors.  Particularly,
the use of  Cause-and-Effect" diagram of the Systems Dynamics methodology is a
very good teaching tool for K-12 children to understand interdependence of
world phenomena and affairs.  And, this understanding, with scientific and
rational analysis and critical thinking, would be the basis of world peace,
and hence ought to be the basic principle of global education for peace.

Incidentally, after I took the course on the Systems Dynamics under Prof. Jay
Forrester in 1967, I was about to take Research Associate position at Draper
Lab.  If I did, I might have joined in Dennis Meadow's group to produce  The
Limit to the Growth" book.

In the spring of 1973, I conducted the world-first global "Peace Gaming" with
Bob Noel with the use of e-mail over computer networks.  I invited the
University of Tokyo and he invited the University of Brussels and the
University of London in addition to several universities in the U.S.  It was a
"normative" gaming as exchanging diplomatic e-mail messages without the use of
quantitative computer simulation models.  American universities sent their
messages through ARPANET and overseas universities through GEISCO.  Students
acted as if the heads of states and cabinet members of assigned countries.
All messages were accumulated and re-distributed by a node at the University
of California in Santa Barbara.  The scenario designed by Bob Noel assumed an
international crisis with a border incident between Iran and Iraq -- which
actually happened about 10 years later.  Japan team sent their messages to the
United Nations team asking to make the Straights of Maracca an international
zone to secure oil flow from the Middle East to Japan, asked the U.S. and
Soviet Union teams to withdraw their navy fleets from the Pacific and Indian
Oceans respectively.

7.   De-regulation of Japanese Telecommunications Policies for the Use of E-mail

A few weeks later, a salesman of GEISCO came to my office and asked to
terminate this exciting global gaming upon instruction of KDD.  Another few
weeks later, however, the same salesman of GEISCO handed me an e-mail message
from a Norwegian in Oslo (who was one of the team members of "The Limit to the
Growth" project at M.I.T.).  The e-mail asked me the name and address of the
person who installed DYNAMO simulation language in the GEISCO time-sharing
service mainframe computer in Cleveland, Ohio.  (Previously I asked Jack Pugh
to do it so that Japanese can use it -- there were no PCs around that time.)
Upon my insistence, the salesman explained that our gaming simulation had to
be stopped due to the Japanese telecommunications regulations, which strictly
prohibited the message exchange through a computer without changing its
contents, -- though such message exchange was performed by the node at Bob
Noel's office in Santa Barbara, California, which was clearly outside of the
Japanese judicial domain.  On the other hand, his e-mail from Norway was
permissible because it was transmitted by a salesman of GEISCO in Oslo to him
in Tokyo -- both were in the same organization.  I thought that this was
patently unfair.

I then found fine-prints in the KDD's user manual on the Telenet's extension
line, prohibiting the use of e-mail.  This was to forfeit my previous effort
of extending Telenet to Japan, since e-mail would be the best means of
communication among game players.  So, I then worked on the de-regulation of
the Japanese telecommunications policy for the use of e-mail through the U.S.
government, thanks to a help from Late Commerce Secretary Malcom Baldridge.
He took my issue as one of three items to cope with Japan's  Non-tariff
Barriers" when he visited Tokyo in October, 1981.  This was the beginning of
fierce US/Japanese trade battles in the following years.

My efforts encountered severe, fierce opposition from KDD, since almost 60% of
KDD's revenue at that time was from Telex.  I even received a life-threatening
words from the President of KDD Engineering Service (KES) Company.  Lo and
behold, their financial status dropped into the "red" a decade after I
succeeded with my de-regulation effort!!  Western Union International, ITT and
RCA Globcom disappeared, too.

The de-regulation of Japanese telecommunications policies has been emulated in
other countries ever since, with Internet access in almost every countries and
over 300 million users of e-mail around the world nowadays.  This also
triggered the privatization of Japanese telecommunications industries and de-monopolization
of the Nippon Telegraph and Telephone (NTT), the world largest corporation.

I would now say that the greatest beneficiaries of my de-regulation efforts
were Mitsubishi Corporation and Mitsui, C. Ito, etc. of Japanese trade firms.
This is because the firms till then had to have their own leased Telex lines
all over the world with millions and millions of dollars in payments to KDD.
About ten years ago, all of them ceased the use of Telex in favor of e-mail,
thus saving huge amounts of money.  They certainly owe me a lot -- but alas,
those Japanese never have tried to acknowledge my efforts -- compared with
Sprint, which gave me the use of their X.25 oriented Telenet data
telecommunication free of charge for over a year which I used with many of my
Latin American colleagues and which total usage amounted to almost
$75,000/month commercial value!!

This is why I love to live in the U.S., not in Japan.

The beauty of this X.25 protocol Sprint was to enable us to mix e-mail address
with fax telephone number so that the messages could be sent to any fax around
the world.  My colleagues at UNESCO in Caracas, Venezuela, and at the
Organization of the American States (OAS) in Washington, D.C., etc. were
particularly happy with the use of this free Sprint accounts, since there were
not packet-switching data telecommunication networks well established in Latin
American countries yet.

My listserve members at that time also had to use almost two rolls of fax
paper every month to receive my long and frequent messages.  One of them was a
staff of National Security Council at the White House who was an assistant to
Vice President Al Gore.  This connection led to his statement mentioned above.

Years later, I showed evidential materials of my efforts mentioned above to
Mr. Yoshio Utsumi, then Deputy Minister of the Japanese Ministry of Posts and
Telecommunications (MPT).  He exclaimed  How stupid thing we did!!"  After
learning the value of de-regulation, he is now Secretary General of the
International Telecommunications Union (ITU) in Geneva, Switzerland.

8.   Incidents of Normative World Gaming

After our successful conduct of the global gaming with Bob Noel, I tried to
solicit the participation of Japanese government officers for our second
round.  I visited an officer at the Japanese Economic Planning Agency who was
sent from the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MOF), the most powerful ministry,
and who was a graduate from Political Science Department of the University of
Tokyo.  I explained him that the gaming players would act as if echelons of
governments according to scenarios for the policy analysis, training on
negotiation techniques, etc.  He then replied to me saying  Are you suggesting
us, Japanese government officers, to act as KABUKI Players?"  I learned how
difficult to make  mind-change."

When I attended the 22nd International Conference of the International
Simulation and Gaming Association (ISAGA) at Ritsumeikan University in Kyoto,
Japan in July 1991, they demonstrated a normative gaming simulation which was
similar to Buckminster Fuller's World Game.  A world map of foot-ball field
size was spread in a gymnasium.  Students assigned to each country were
standing on the country and exchanged their diplomatic messages verbally.  A
professor of the university later said that, even its initial conditions were
same, the results of gaming on Iraq and Iran boarder incident at different
times were often completely opposite.  I then mentioned him of my conversation
with Bob Noel and our global gaming with the use of ARPANET and GEISCO.  They
later established a global affair study center at the university and
introduced the use of e-mail -- almost 20 years later than our global gaming.

Our global gaming with Bob Noel in 1973 was conducted with graduate students
and a professor of the Political Science Department of the University of
Tokyo.  The professor at Ritsumeikan University was also at the same
department of the same university at that time.  The latter might have never
heard of our global gaming with the use of ARPANET, since the both professors
were rival each other.  I learned another kind of barrier for the propagation
of new technology.

Incidentally, when I had a teaching job offer from the University of Tokyo, I
declined it by the kind suggestion of Late Dr. Shigeru Nambara, our family
friend, former dean of the Political Science Department and later Rector of
the university, and a good friend of Late President James Conant of Harvard
University -- both of them introduced American educational system to Japan
right after the World War II.  Dr. Nambara told me "Don't come here.  It's so
stifle that nothing would be interesting!!"  This might have been the reason
of such a ridiculous rivalry of the two professors mentioned above.

9.   Global Peace Gaming in Quantitative Mode

The GLOSAS project began with a demonstration of global-scale peace-gaming at
the conference on "Crisis Management and Conflict Resolution" by the World
Future Society (WFS) in New York City, in July of 1986.  It was one of the
largest and perhaps most successful demonstration of global gaming/simulation
organized so far.  The event was a global gaming simulation sessions on a
crisis scenario involving the U.S.-Japan trade and economy issues.  The
multimedia teleconferencing sessions used voice, slow-scan TV [SSTV], computer
text and data, graphics, and a simulation model.  Nearly 1,500 persons took
part, in New York, Tokyo, Honolulu and at the World's Fair in Vancouver, B.C.
Fred Campano of the United Nations wrote a game scenario, and Akira Onishi of
Soka University in Tokyo supplied his FUGI model of the world economy.

Noted U.S. economists (Professor Lester C. Thurow of M.I.T., Provost William
Nordhaus of Yale, Mr. Keith Johnson of Townsend and Greenspan Company) were
panelists of this event and electronically interconnected with Japanese
counterparts (Professor Onishi of Soka University, and President Shishido of
International University) for three days of computer-assisted negotiations.
Several hypothetical policies were examined.  One question raised by Donald
Straus (President Emeritus of American Arbitration Association) was the effect
of raising military expenditures in Japan to the American level while lowering
those of the U.S. to the present Japanese level.  Simulation ran overnight
predicted that the balance of trade would thus be even by the year 2000, with
necessity of cooperation, rather than competition, by both countries in the
future.  This clearly indicated the cost and dilemma of American's nuclear
umbrella protecting Japan's economic prosperity, thus threatening American's
economic prosperity.

This gaming simulation lasted three evenings.  At the end of each session,
Onishi executed new economic parameters on his FUGI model which parameters
were discussed and agreed by both parties in New York and Tokyo, and sent his
computational results back to New York at the next session for continuing
discussions.  All participating sites had Colorado Video's slow-scan image
transceiver which were connected through a telephone bridge so that all sites
could receive/send their images.  Audio/voice could be sent through the same
Plain Old Telephone Service (POTS) line, except while transmitting images.
Onishi's computer outputs were sent to New York by fax via another telephone
line.  As soon as it arrived, it was copied to transparencies, and projected
on to a large screen which was then transmitted by the slow-scan transceiver
to all participating sites.  We used real-time chatting feature of Electronic
Information Exchange System (EIES) of New Jersey Institute of Technology for
back-stage coordination.

This event with combined use of inexpensive delivery systems afforded an
opportunity to see how academic departments might become linked across
national boundaries for the purpose of joint study, research and planetary
problem-solving without expending high cost for satellite video.  After this
successful sessions, several former high ranking officers of the U.S./Japanese
governmental agencies expressed their strong interest in a similar multi-media
teleconferencing on a more regular basis to establish an early warning system
of the both countries' ever-closely interwoven, interdependent economic and
trade relationships.  Systems analysis for systemic change at the global level
is a precondition for any significant resolution to today's global-scale
problems, as has been advocated by the GLOSAS Project since it was originated in 1972.

>From this initial effort, a series of "Global Lecture Hall (GLH)" (TM)
multipoint-to-multipoint, multimedia, interactive videoconferencings has
commenced, spanning many countries around the world which were conducted every year.

10.  Marriage of Quantitative and Qualitative Global Gaming

As mentioned above, there are two groups of global gaming; one is the
quantitative approach with the use of computer simulation and the other is the
qualitative approach without use of such simulation models.

The methodologies for the former group are (1) the Systems Dynamics based on
cybernetics theory which was originated by Professor Jay Forrester of the
M.I.T., (2) the econometrics based on statistical analysis which was
originated by Professor Lawrence R. Klein (Economic Nobel Laureate, 1980) of
the University of Pennsylvania, and (3) the input-output based on matrix
analysis which was originated by Professor Wassily Leontief (Economic Nobel
Laureate, 1973) of New York University who was once one of panelists of our
GLH videoconferencing.  All of these are based on  facts and figures."

On the other hand, the approaches of the latter group are same normative with
the use of verbal (or message) exchanges for the stream which was originated
from Professor Harold Guetzkow of Northwestern University, and the stream
which was originated from Buckminster Fuller's World Game.

These two groups may correspond to left and right hemispheres of human brain;
the former for logical analysis and verbal communication and the latter for
intuitions and passions.  Both are connected with a corpus callosum for
communication.  They are acting as a single brain.

A patient whose corpus callosum was cut can make a pattern recognition of,
say, a horse with his right brain, but cannot speak a word "horse" out from
his left brain.  This patient can build blocks neatly and orderly with his
right hand which is controlled by his left brain, but his left hand which is
controlled by his right brain destroys it dis-orderly, though not deliberately.

It may further correspond the former (left hemisphere) for digital computer
and the latter (right hemisphere) for analog computer.  Hybrid computer
consists of digital computer and analog computer which are interfaced with
wire, as corpus callosum does between two hemispheres.

Global village has Orient and Occident.  Both need to be connected with
satellite and other telecommunications media.  We call this a "Rainbow Bridge
Across the Pacific" between the Eastern and Western cultures.  As the corpus
callosum has numerous channels between the two hemispheres, the more the
telecommunications bridges is the better.

As extending the analogy of the hybrid computer to a human brain further, it
would be an urgent need and task of the U.S. and Japan to jointly build a
corpus callosum between Eastern and Western cultures with global computer
communication network with satellites.

The proposed Globally Collaborative Environmental Peace Gaming with
distributed computer simulation system through global neural computer network
is to marry both of the quantitative computer simulation approach and the
qualitative, normative gaming approach with the  man-in-the-loop" interactive mode.

This will also overcome the difficulty of quantifying the intangible items of
human happiness for the so-called  Quality of Life (QOL)" equation in the
Systems Dynamics methodology, which, I believe, should be left for the
normative discussions among game players.

11.  Future Possibilities of Global Peace Gaming

Although I could tell more of my old stories of peace gaming, I would now like
to consider future possibilities.  Our next task is to link many national
models which will be resided in the computers in their individual countries
for our Globally Collaborative Environmental Peace Gaming.

I would like to say that it would be very attractive to conduct a peace game
with the officials of the World Bank, IMF, AND key members of riot groups who
are staging a bloodshed fiasco in Washington, D.C. in the spring of 2000.

For example, in the Capitol Mall in Washington, D.C., there could have a large
computer screen and a PictureTel screen connecting with each of the poor
countries via broadband Internet.  Each country's computer platform would be
connected to notable economists and decision-makers of each country.  Each
computer screen would display economic outcomes in graphical form, showing the
execution of their economic sub-models which would be connected with that of
other countries through the global neural computer network in the fashion of a
distributed computer simulation system.  Then, have the global model simulate
the world economic future with a scenario of, say, forfeiting the debts of all
poor countries -- as the riot organizers proposed.

The ideal execution mode of global model for gaming would be the so-called
 man-in-the-loop" interactive one which is similar to the flight simulation.
In this mode, the global model will be executed from the initial point, say,
the Year 2000.  The model's execution output will be seen in graphic form by
participants around the world.

According to the pre-set scenario, the participants will stop the model
execution, to discuss the new situation and set new policy parameters for the
next execution period by the consensus among them, and so on.  The scenario
may have the change of population growth rate (say, due to worldwide
epidemic), or energy shortage (say, due to political upheaval in an oil
producing country), etc.  During those parameter changes, the
videoconferencing connection will provide participants with direct normative discussion.

All of the participants, the officials of the World Bank, IMF, participating
countries' decision-makers (however far away), and the riot group leaders
could then gentlemanly (!) discuss each of the scenarios, rationally with
critical thinking based on facts and figures -- without any bloodshed and fiasco!!

It would be very interesting if this exercise would be hierarchical in nature,
to produce both local and global results, and to give the results something
meaningful locally as well to sustain interest.

If we could receive some form of input via e-mail from the K-12 level; perhaps
they would get to "vote" on policy, it would be extremely interesting to
leverage the schools, data-input, and political infrastructure of NASA and
IMF, etc., as well as participation from a few select NGOs currently
protesting in downtown Washington (Sierra Club, etc.).

Such was my dream when I conceived of peace gaming almost 25 to 30 years ago
at Mitsubishi Research Institute, brain center of the Mitsubishi cartel.

During our International Workshop and Conference on  Emerging Global
Electronic Distance Learning (EGEDL)" at the University of Tampere, Finland in
August, 1999, we tested NetMeeting videoconferencing via broadband Internet
between the University of Tampere, Finland and Montana State University, even
though there were more than a dozen routers made by different makers.  It
produced high quality audio and video, signifying that there was no packet
loss and time delay.  This means that synchronous, simultaneous execution of
dispersed, distributed computer simulation submodels for our peace gaming via
broadband Internet is now technologically possible.

Since the prerequisite to global peace gaming is global education, I am now
very busy forging ahead to establish a Global University System with global
wireless and satellite broadband Internet which are to be financed with Global
Service Trust Fund (GSTF) in the magnitude of several billion dollars.  The
GSTF is an emulation of the FCC's Universal Service Fund to provide
educational institutions, NGOs, local governments, K-12 schools, etc. around
the world with severely discounted E-rates (or better yet, free accounts) for
their Internet access.  This is because of my conviction that
education/learning would be fundamental to world peace, fostering global
citizenship of the global village to cope with globalization of the world
economy -- which is one of the main subjects targeted by the rioters in Washington.

For further details please visit;

1.   "Chapter 1: Personal Recollections on the Inception of Peace Gaming and
     Global University System"

2.   "Chapter 5: Global University for Global Peace Gaming."

They are available in the draft of my proposed Book "Electronic Global
University System and Services" at:
                          ATTACHMENT I

                      Reference web sites:



(2)  Tampere conference:


(3)  Global University System:


(4)  Global University System: Asia-Pacific Framework:


(5)  Global broadband Internet networks:


(6)  Global Service Trust Fund (GSTF):




(7)  Manaus workshop:

                      List of Distribution

Mr. John McLeod (Fax: 619-277-3930)
Society for Computer Simulation International (SCSI)
8484 La Jolla Shores Drive
La Jolla, CA 92037

* Takeshi Utsumi, Ph.D., P.E., Chairman, GLOSAS/USA                  *
* (GLObal Systems Analysis and Simulation Association in the U.S.A.) *
* Laureate of Lord Perry Award for Excellence in Distance Education  *
* Founder of CAADE                                                   *
* (Consortium for Affordable and Accessible Distance Education)      *
* President Emeritus and V.P. for Technology and Coordination of     *
*   Global University System (GUS)                                   *
* 43-23 Colden Street, Flushing, NY 11355-3998, U.S.A.               *
* Tel: 718-939-0928; Fax: 718-939-0656 (day time only--prefer email) *
* Email: utsumi@columbia.edu;  Tax Exempt ID: 11-2999676             *
* http://www.friends-partners.org/GLOSAS/                            *
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